Tuesday, 1 March 2011

US cuts hopes for 2011-12 rebuild in crop supplies, with ethanol major user

Date: Feb 24, 2011

The US Department of Agriculture has cut hopes for a rebuild in crop stocks in 2011-12 - with corn inventories to stay below 1bn bushels – presenting a squeeze sufficient to give farmers record prices for major crops.

......The growth in sowings would be led by corn, Mr Glauber said, firming up a preliminary USDA forecast revealed last week, in the so-called "baseline" report, of a rise of 3.8m acres to 92m acres in sowings.
However, even assuming a trend yield of 161.7m bushels per acre, bringing the total harvest to an all-time high of 13.7bn bushels, a significant rebuild in inventories would be prevented by strong exports and firm demand from ethanol producers

Favourable tax treatment means "the incentive for ethanol blending remains strong… and ethanol [is] expected to remain attractive priced relative to gasoline", Mr Glauber said.
Link: http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-cuts-hopes-for-2011-12-rebuild-in-crop-supplies--2862.html
Key USDA estimates for US corn 2011-12 and (change on previous)
Sowings: 92m acres (unchanged)
Production: 13.73bn bushels, (-25m bushels)
Ethanol use: 5.0bn bushels, (+125m bushels)
Change in year-end stocks: +190m bushels, (previous +300m bushels)
Comparisons with USDA baseline forecasts

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