Thursday, 10 March 2011

China's corn stocks are worryingly low

Date: March 7, 2011

Bao Kexin, the president of China Grain Reserves Corporation, or Sinograin, which manages the national stocks, said that while overall grain reserves were sufficient, those of corn held "outstanding problems".

While failing to put a figure on corn inventories, Mr Bao urged restrictions on exports of the grain, as well as the manufacture of products such as ethanol and starch based on the crop.
"Corn shall be used mainly for animal feed and large volumes used for industry should not be allowed," he said, according to the Xinhua news agency.
He also highlighted the country's "limited" agricultural area, and urged the government to guarantee at least 1.8bn mu, equivalent to about 120m hectares, of farmland from the spread of urbanisation.
[......] The US Grains Council believes China's imports could rise from 2m-3m tonnes in 2010 to 6m-9m tonnes this year, while Standard Chartered two weeks ago said the "larger imports will be required to reverse the decline in stocks".
"The trend in China's corn stocks is worrying," Standard Chartered analysts Abah Ofon and Koun-Ken Lee said.

Comment: the prospect of rising corn imports by China and a fast paced US corn ethanol mandate may send US stocks lower and raise the prospect of declining US corn exports in the near future. All of which have the potential to add to current volatility.

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